Vigilant News

Eternal Vigilance is the price of liberty.

Finance

Jim Jordan Obtains Documents Showing Federal Agencies Flagged Transactions of “MAGA” and “Trump” Supporters
Additionally, those who shop at sporting goods stores and those who've purchased bibles are also being tracked.

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Jim Jordan, chairman of the House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, announced on Wednesday that the committee had obtained documents revealing that federal agencies have flagged financial transactions for people using politically sensitive words such as “MAGA” and Trump.”

Jordan elaborated in a letter to Noah Bishoff, a former director of FinCEN (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) and current anti-money laundering (AML) officer at the fintech company Plaid, Inc., on scenarios in which the transactions of American citizens purchasing bibles or sporting goods stores might be flagged.

New documents obtained by the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government reveal that the federal government flagged terms like “MAGA” and “TRUMP” for financial institutions if Americans used those phrases when completing transactions. Individuals who shopped at stores like Cabela’s or Dick’s Sporting Goods, or purchased religious texts like a bible, may also have had their transactions flagged. This kind of pervasive financial surveillance, carried out in coordination with and at the request of federal law enforcement, into Americans’ private transactions is alarming and raises serious concerns about the FBI’s respect for fundamental civil liberties. -Judiciary.house.gov

“The Committee and Select Subcommittee have obtained documents indicating that following January 6, 2021, FinCEN distributed materials to financial institutions that, among other things, outline the ‘typologies’ of various persons of interest and provide financial institutions with suggested search terms and Merchant Category Codes (MCCs) for identifying transactions on behalf of federal law enforcement,” the letter reads.

“These materials included a document recommending the use of generic terms like ‘TRUMP’ and ‘MAGA’ to ‘search Zelle payment messages’ as well as a ‘prior FinCEN analysis’ of ‘Lone Actor/Homegrown Violent Extremism Indicators,” the letter continues. “According to this analysis, FinCEN warned financial institutions of ‘extremism’ indicators that include ‘transportation charges, such as bus tickets, rental cars, or plane tickets, for travel to areas with no apparent purpose,’ or ‘the purchase of books (including religious texts) and subscriptions to other media containing extremist views.’ In other words, FinCEN urged large financial institutions to comb through the private transactions of their customers for suspicious charges on the basis of protected political and religious expression.”

The Committee declared that senior intelligence officials, including Bishoff, are to be interviewed.

Suspicious Israeli Stock Market Activity Suggests Possible Foreknowledge of Conflict

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The results of a recent academic study are startling and controversial, to say the least. The precarious Israeli stock market activity observed in the days leading up to Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7 suggests that a specific, nameless entity possessed knowledge of the impending assault and exploited the ensuing hysteria for personal gain.

The paper, authored by Robert J. Jackson Jr. and Joshua Mitts of New York University School of Law, concludes that unidentified individuals were cognizant of the impending operation and intended to illicitly profit, as evidenced by a “significant spike” in short selling of listed Israeli companies. By short selling, or shorting, investors wager that a particular stock will underperform and profit if their prediction is accurate.

Contrary to conventional trading, shorting is an exceedingly uncommon practice, and justifiably so. Numerous investment advisors caution against the practice under all circumstances, as breaches of projected poor performance can result in enormous losses. Remarkably, the researchers discovered that the volume of short selling on Israeli companies in the days leading up to October 7 “far exceeded short selling that occurred during numerous other periods of crisis, including the recession following the financial crisis, the 2014 Israel-Gaza war, and the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Now, Israeli authorities are investigating the allegations made by the U.S. researchers.

As per Reuters:

Research by law professors Robert Jackson Jr from New York University and Joshua Mitts of Columbia University found significant short-selling of shares leading up to the attacks, which triggered a war nearly two months old.

“Days before the attack, traders appeared to anticipate the events to come,” they wrote, citing short interest in the MSCI Israel Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that “suddenly, and significantly, spiked” on Oct. 2 based on data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).

“And just before the attack, short selling of Israeli securities on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) increased dramatically,” they wrote in their 66-page report.

The TASE subsequently directed Reuters to the Israel Securities Authority, which issued the following statement: “The matter is known to the authority and is under investigation by all the relevant parties.”

The securities regulator’s spokesperson refrained from providing further details, and the Israeli police did not respond promptly either.

They wrote that Leumi (LUMI.TA), the largest bank in Israel, generated profits of $3.2 billion shekels ($862 million) from the additional short-selling of 4.43 million new shares sold short between September 14 and October 5.

“Although we see no aggregate increase in shorting of Israeli companies on U.S. exchanges, we do identify a sharp and unusual increase, just before the attacks, in trading in risky short-dated options on these companies expiring just after the attacks,” they said.

“Our findings suggest that traders informed about the coming attacks profited from these tragic events, and consistent with prior literature we show that trading of this kind occurs in gaps in U.S. and international enforcement of legal prohibitions on informed trading.”

The academics concluded: “Our evidence is consistent with informed traders anticipating and profiting from the Hamas attack.”

Aside from concerns regarding the paper’s potential to skew profit totals, this finding is exceedingly persuasive. A multitude of datasets examined extensively demonstrate that there was, in fact, a “significant spike” in short selling immediately preceding Operation Al-Aqsa Flood – and one that was extremely dubious, to say the least.

Prior to the attack, the shorting of dozens of Israeli companies listed on the Tel Aviv stock exchange “significantly increased.” From September 14 to October 5, 4.43 million new shares were shorted on a single company. Additionally, just prior to the attacks, there was an “abnormal and sudden increase” in U.S. exchanges in the volume of extremely risky short-dated options placed on Israeli equities. These options expired almost immediately after the attack began.

A graph showing shorting of the Israeli stock exchange ETF pre-Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, as part of the wider market

In a similar vein, the shorting of the MSCI Israel Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), which is a passive investment vehicle that mirrors the overall performance of the Israeli stock exchange, “suddenly, and significantly, spiked.” on October 2. In the 3,570 trading days preceding Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, this was the 30th-highest daily shorting volume ever witnessed by the ETF, according to the authors. In other terms, it was one of the largest wagers placed since 2009 on the underperformance of the Israeli stock exchange.

Israeli stock shorting at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which momentarily precipitated one of the largest global stock market catastrophes in history, was “significantly” dwarfed by this shorting. A “largest intraday trading decline ever recorded” occurred in March 2020, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 2000 points, evaporating trillions of dollars from the global economy.

The authors’ conclusion is unsurprising.

“It is extremely unlikely that the volume of short selling on October 2nd occurred by random chance.”

The identification of “similar patterns” in the trading of the Israeli ETF in April 2023, precisely when Hamas was reportedly preparing to launch a similar attack, is an additional compelling finding. The strike, which had been scheduled to closely mirror the events of October, was canceled when Tel Aviv publicly issued a national alert level in response to Israeli intelligence agencies gaining advance notice.

Shorting activity on the Israeli ETF since October, 2022

The attack was timed to start on the eve of Passover, April 5. Two days earlier, the shorting of the Israeli ETF “peaked…at levels very similar to those observed” on October 2. The recorded volume “was far higher (by an order of magnitude) than other days prior”:

This evidence strengthens the interpretation that the trading observed in October and April was related to the Hamas attack, rather than random noise.”

California Budget Deficit Reaches a Record-Breaking $68 billion

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The California budget deficit has reached $68 billion, according to an announcement made Thursday by the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

According to Politico, the amount is significantly greater than the June estimate of $14.3 billion, and it coincides with a decline in tax revenues throughout the Golden State. Fortunately, Sacramento does not face an entirely negative outlook, as the state possesses the necessary resources to tackle the situation, specifically a substantial cash reserve.

“The state remains in a good cash position, and that wasn’t the case back at the start of the Great Recession. We don’t face the same kind of liquidity challenges that we had at that time, and so I would stop short of describing it as a crisis,” LAO Analyst Gabriel Petek told the outlet.

Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who last week boasted about the achievements of the Golden State during a televised debate with Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, views the numbers as something of a black eye.

The news source noted that Newsom will likely be required to implement substantial cost reductions in order to accommodate the unforeseen deficit.

Newsom is expected to release an updated budget proposal and deficit projections in May of next year, but with his sights very likely set on the presidency, it’s uncertain how invested Newsom is on remedying this issue.

U.S. Banks Desperately Try to Stay Open Amid a Flood of Branch Closings.
JPMorgan Chase will close a total of 159 local branches by the end of this calendar year

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Things will work out well in the long run if you do them the right way. Conversely, things will go badly if you do them the wrong way. Unfortunately, our banks, the circulatory system of our economy, have been seemingly intentionally doing things wrong for a long time.

The whole system is being shaken up because of this. An alarming number of loans are becoming past due, there have been numerous “banking glitches” in the past few months, tens of thousands of banking workers have already been let go, and U.S. banks are holding on to hundreds of billions of dollars in hidden losses.

It looks like things will get even more confusing over time. As smaller banks fall, the bigger banks will take them over. Of course, the big boys will also be having a hard time staying living as things progress toward an inevitable conclusion.

If you think I’m just pulling all of this out of my derriere, consider that it is being reported that JPMorgan Chase will close a total of 159 local branches by the end of this calendar year…

In 2023, JP Morgan Chase has or will close 159 branch locations across the United States. The banking giant is not alone in its decision to scale back its physical presence as banking moves online; Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi Bank have announced closures at similar scales that will continue into 2024.

Bank of America is following close behind. More than 100 local offices will be shut down for good by the end of 2023, we’ve been told.

Bank of America is the second largest bank in the United States, and this year, the financial giant has announced that it will close up to 138 locations. To date, 95 branches have been closed this year, and 15 more are to shutter by the end of the year. The remaining locations are planned to close in 2024, meaning that the trend, common among nearly all of the big banks of shutting local branches will continue.

Naturally, this “avalanche” of closed branches didn’t start yesterday. We saw more than 3,000 bank stores closed in 2022. It’s unprecedented in modern times, but the consensus is that more branches will close in 2024.

At this very moment, U.S. banks are sitting on a huge pile of deferred losses. Not only that, but new numbers just out show that U.S. banks have a total of $684 billion in unrecognized losses…

“Unrealized losses” on securities – mostly Treasury securities and government-guaranteed MBS – at FDIC-insured commercial banks at the end of Q3 jumped by $126 billion (or by 22%) from the prior quarter, to $684 billion, according to the FDIC’s quarterly bank data release on Wednesday.

The real danger will be if Americans, seeing that certain banks cannot honor withdrawal requests, decide to make bank runs. Do you remember when Silicon Valley Bank failed earlier this year? Well, that is precisely what happened.

A new report says that three banks are especially at risk right now…

As per the Daily Mail:

Regional banks Comerica, First Horizon and Zions are at risk of being targets for acquisition by larger rivals, according to a new report.

Since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, the US banking industry has been poised for a reconfiguration that could see smaller regional banks wiped out.

At the same time, the housing bubble is poised to burst.

A recent report showed that the number of potential home sales in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level ever…

Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, dropped 1.5% in October from September.

They hit the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking this metric in 2001, meaning it’s even worse than readings during the financial crisis more than a decade ago. Sales were down 8.5% from October of last year.

Spend some time mentally marinating on those paragraphs.

Pending home sales have never been this low, not even in the worst days of the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

Let’s hope that everyone stays calm and things keep going as normal for as long as possible. Because there will be a huge problem as soon as people start to worry and take their money out of banks.

Lots of U.S. banks are “financial zombies” right now, as are a lot of U.S. customers, with the U.S. government being the biggest “financial zombie” of all.

Key FED Indicator Suggests That The US is Already in a Recession

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What has been called a “Key economic indicator” from the Federal Reserve seems to suggest that the country is not “heading into a recession”, but is already entered recession territory.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecasting tool said on Friday that “real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27.”

Jeff Cox, an economic analyst, wrote at CNBC on Friday saying that the 1% contraction, “coupled with the first quarter’s decline of 1.6% … would fit the technical definition of recession.”

The GDPNow model offers a more bleak point of view for the next quarter following its assessment, claiming that:

 “the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively.”

The current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has promised Americans that the Fed would “succeed in getting inflation down to 2%.”

“The process is highly likely to involve some pain,” he said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank, “but the worse pain would be from failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent.”

 But experts have been warning of a perfect storm of economic chaos as inflation has decimated spending across the economy while Federal Reserve efforts to stave off that inflation have seen interest rates spiking sharply.